It’s safe to say the pullback we had a couple of weeks ago was a side effect of Spring Break.
Welp, the interest rate situation is getting ugly. More on that in the Macro section below…
There isn’t a huge reaction to that noticeable in the local data….yet.
Weekly new listings bounced back to the 600 range we saw in early March. It’s safe to say the pullback we had a couple of weeks ago was a side effect of Spring Break.
Inventory continued its march higher. We just narrowly surpassed the 2023 peak of 3,458.
The recent string of economic data shows we have more upside risk with rates than downside right now.
The incredibly hot retail sales report that hit yesterday was especially a shocker, so I have to update my going-forward commentary to assume even higher rates for longer.
How’s Brian feeling this week about the San Diego market?
Not optimistic anymore… (updates below)
- 3-month outlook (June 2024) – inventory will increase. We’ll see another 1-2% appreciation over March in Q2. Values will peak in
MayApril, then flatten out and fall from there. - 6-month outlook (September 2024) – inventory will be higher still. I expect demand to continue to slow with rates staying higher for longer. Q3 will show
a littlesome depreciation as buying starts slowing down in July. Values will be close to levels seen in March 2024. - 12-month outlook (March 2025) – we usually lose 3-5% in from the end of Q3 to the end of Q4 (even in good years) then gain it all back and more in Q1.
I don’t see why this year will be any different. We’ll end up 3-5% higher in March 2025 compared to today’s levels.It all depends on rates, and that’s such a crap shoot to try to nail down right now. I plead the 5th for now.
Disclaimer! This is not investment advice. I might be wrong. You make your own decisions.
Other Relevant Local News
- San Diego flood victims have one last week to apply for a federal assistance loan.
- San Diego’s proposed 1,000-bed homeless shelter hits first setback.
