Last week saw 24% new listings than the previous 4-week average.
New listings are ramping up.
New pendings increased as well but nowhere near as fast.
Some good news for buyers…the increase in the supply of active listings is speeding up as a result.
Probably not so good news for values though (which I guess is good news for buyers too).
Values will likely show appreciation in April because the homes that sell in April went into escrow in March when rates and inventory were lower.
Beyond that, I expect we’ll see values flatten out and then decline for the rest of the year unless or until we see a big pullback in rates.
Why? It always comes down to supply vs demand.
Supply is outpacing demand, and new buyers are facing many more headwinds than new sellers.
Case in point – the New York Times just put out this article about how many sellers are done waiting for lower rates.
How’s Brian feeling this week about the San Diego market?
Not optimistic anymore…
- 3-month outlook (June 2024) – inventory will increase. We’ll see another 1-2% appreciation over March in Q2. Values will peak in April, then flatten out and fall from there.
- 6-month outlook (September 2024) – inventory will be higher still. I expect demand to continue to slow with rates staying higher for longer. Q3 will show some depreciation as buying starts slowing down in July. Values will be close to levels seen in March 2024.
- 12-month outlook (March 2025) – we usually lose 3-5% in from the end of Q3 to the end of Q4 (even in good years) then gain it all back and more in Q1. It all depends on rates, and that’s such a crap shoot to try to nail down right now. I plead the 5th for now.
Disclaimer! This is not investment advice. I might be wrong. You make your own decisions.
Other Relevant Local News
- San Diego rent prices are essentially flat.
- California Association of Realtors CEO resigns.
